“Unlike some other analysts and observes, I still believe that Russia is playing a positive role in seeking agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh. [Russian] President Medvedev has personally spent many hours trying to reach a peaceful agreement,” International Crisis Group Europe Program Director Sabine Freizer told Turan news agency.<\/p>\n
According to her, a war in Nagorno-Karabakh would be detrimental to Russia’s security and relations with its neighbors and would be different than the five-day Russo-Georgian war of 2008.<\/p>\n
“The war in Nagorno-Karabakh would be protracted. Russia has committed to ensuring Armenia’s security and it can’t completely ignore this. On the other hand, Turkey has a similar obligation to Azerbaijan. At a time when relations between Turkey and Russia are becoming a strategic partnership, a war in the region will divide them and will have an extremely negative impact on both sides.<\/p>\n
“An outbreak of war under the circumstances seems very realistic. The arms race, escalation on the front lines, military rhetoric and lack of progress in negotiations only increase the risks. Azerbaijan’s military expenditure not only exceeded Armenia’s entire budget, but also doubled from last year,” she said.<\/p>\n