{"id":342157,"date":"2025-12-07T14:43:49","date_gmt":"2025-12-07T10:43:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/epress.am\/?p=342157"},"modified":"2025-12-07T14:46:00","modified_gmt":"2025-12-07T10:46:00","slug":"ukraine-war-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/epress.am\/en\/2025\/12\/07\/ukraine-war-analysis.html","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;\u0421\u043b\u0430\u0432\u0430 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0456&#8221; sounds very much like &#8220;\u0421\u043b\u0430\u0432\u0430 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0438\u043d\u0435&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Andriy Kulykov, a journalist based in Kyiv, gave an interview to his colleagues from Yerevan-based news outlet Epress, who were on a work trip to Ukraine in November 2025.<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"\u00ab\u0421\u043b\u0430\u0432\u0430 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0456\u00bb-\u0576 \u0578\u0582 \u00ab\u0421\u043b\u0430\u0432\u0430 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0438\u043d\u0435\u00bb-\u0576 \u0563\u0580\u0565\u0569\u0565 \u0576\u0578\u0582\u0575\u0576 \u0571\u0587 \u0565\u0576 \u0570\u0576\u0579\u0578\u0582\u0574\" width=\"618\" height=\"348\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/7YVmW4BSm78?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;\"><em>video in Russian with Armenian subtitles\u00a0<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u2014We, as journalists \u2014 together with our authorities \u2014 have fallen short in being honest with our audience. A lot of things have been only half-said. In the beginning, a policy of feeding illusions was implemented \u2014 about an imminent victory or, even better, Russia\u2019s imminent defeat. Similar talks were circulating back in 2014, when Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk were being taken. The popular theory was that this was the start of the inevitable and fast fall of the Russian Empire. I still don\u2019t know how those people were measuring \u201cfast.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>***<\/p>\n<p>A considerable part of the people never liked President Zelensky in the first place. I think the Russians succeeded in amplifying these sentiments. Some people are inclined to connect our setbacks in the war \u2014 as well as the war itself \u2014 personally to Zelensky\u2019s government.<\/p>\n<p>***<\/p>\n<p>There was the issue of evacuating civilians from the frontline. At times, when it was declared that, say, 50 people remain in this or that village, this or that town and they refuse to leave, even though they are aware that the Russians will soon march in, they were immediately stigmatized \u2014 as those expecting the Russians, as the enemy, a disguised enemy. Things are more complicated than that. People might have a myriad of reasons not to leave their towns. The same happened in 2014, when most of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk were occupied. Many didn\u2019t leave because their family graves were there. For others, it was their garden \u2014 their main source of livelihood. Others couldn\u2019t move because they couldn\u2019t leave their ill father or mother. We\u2019ve already been through this; we seemed to have understood it. But now it\u2019s a new wave, and the scale is much bigger, and, most importantly, there is a tangible, clear opponent. If in 2014 or in 2015\u20132016 Russia tried to conceal its participation, now it doesn\u2019t even deny it. It has become easier to say: \u201cLook, they are waiting for the Russians.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>***<\/p>\n<p>In 2022, there were many volunteer fighters; frontline units were largely composed of volunteers. Then the draft began, which was also organized through coercive means. Those who really didn\u2019t want to go were taken anyway. If the families of volunteers were more or less at peace with their husband \u2014 or, in some cases, wife \u2014 going to war, the relatives of those drafted coercively are not at peace with this. I think you understand this very well.<\/p>\n<p>***<\/p>\n<p>There has been a transition from the great enthusiasm present in the initial stage to more measured discussions about possible peace. Peace is now discussed as the cessation of military actions along the existing borders, along the current frontline, even though officially \u2014 and, as polling confirms, most commonly \u2014 the most desired outcome is the restoration of the 1991 borders. Some speak about the 2022 line of contact, but the Russians are not planning to retreat, and we still do not have the strength to push them back. Therefore, in the emerging situation, the conversation is mostly about stopping the war along the current frontline.<\/p>\n<p>***<\/p>\n<p>Recently, in a rather symptomatic way, Finland and the \u201cFinnish scenario\u201d are mentioned more and more often. Previously, that precedent was discussed mainly as an example of heroism: a small country that, despite enormous losses, resisted the aggression of a large one. Now the conversations are different. A few months ago, Ukrainska Pravda published an article stating that Finland managed to preserve its independence at the cost of giving up territories already captured by Russia. This is indeed symptomatic. The Finns, at that time, evacuated all their population from the territories seized by the Soviet Union \u2014 around 480,000 people, if I recall correctly. Now Karabakh is also being discussed in the context of mass evacuation. I was present at a situation like this: one expert, with whom we were talking about something entirely different \u2014 Ukraine and the possible end of the war \u2014 said, \u201cThere is the Azerbaijan\u2019s case: it won the war in which it was initially losing \u2014 that is a valuable precedent.\u201d The other expert strongly objected: \u201cBut that is also a precedent of mass deportation \u2014 one that hasn\u2019t been seen since forever, especially in our post-Soviet region.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>***<\/p>\n<p>Little by little, people are beginning to express concerns about the role of the military in our future political life. \u201cThe war will end, the military will return from the frontline \u2014 what will they do?\u201d They will compete for power. No one knows, and no one can possibly know when the war will end, but we need to start thinking about it already. Perhaps in Kyiv you have seen the propaganda posters \u2014 of Azov, the 3rd Assault Brigade, and our other units. At first, I thought these were intended to attract new volunteers, support mobilization, and boost combat morale. However, this propaganda is spreading. Whereas before the posters appeared only on billboards, now they are also on the rooftops of large buildings. The huge Azov posters\u2026 they are already being interpreted differently. Perhaps they are preparing for active political participation.<\/p>\n<p>***<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Is there any proof that Zelenskyy was directly involved in major corruption?<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Proof that the money went directly to Zelenskyy \u2014 there isn\u2019t any, at least for now.<\/p>\n<p>***<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 The language issue is widely discussed in the media and on social networks \u2014 sometimes very heatedly. If I understand correctly, in everyday life, in the trenches, people find common language better. Does this really happen, or is it just an impression?<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 I know this very clearly, and I think it\u2019s important not to forget that Russian language and Russian culture were used by imperial authorities to suppress Ukrainian culture and other cultures. I\u2019m aware of the situation in Belarus, too and so on, and so forth. But a person has the right to speak in the language in which they were raised. There are habits formed over decades. Many of my fellow citizens did not feel the necessity to speak Ukrainian until 2014, and some not until 2022 \u2014 I can be sorry about this, but I cannot blame them. Many Ukrainian soldiers speak Russian in the trenches. Some, by the way, feel embarrassed about this, they would like to speak Ukrainian. But a person in his mid-40s or 50s, who has gone to war to defend Ukraine, risking their life and future, and \u201c\u0421\u043b\u0430\u0432\u0430 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0456\u201d sounds very much like \u201c\u0421\u043b\u0430\u0432\u0430 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0438\u043d\u0435\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>***<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 You were speaking about the achievements of Russian propaganda. Could you name a couple of key points? What did they succeed at ?<\/p>\n<p>\u2014Among the people I\u2019ve known for a long time \u2014 if not friends, at least close or amicable acquaintances \u2014 there is this perception: \u201cIf we hadn\u2019t resisted, maybe this would have already ended, civilians wouldn\u2019t have been killed, there wouldn\u2019t have been power outages,\u201d \u201cpeople, even those living far from the frontline, wouldn\u2019t have had to suffer or face these hardships\u2026 we shouldn\u2019t have fought Russia,\u201d \u201cin that case, everything, or at least many things, would have been better.\u201d This is the success of propaganda. I have heard a similar view from some of my foreign colleagues: &lt;\u2026&gt; \u201cIf they hadn\u2019t resisted, none of this would have happened.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The popular theory was that this was the start of the inevitable and fast fall of the Russian Empire. I still don\u2019t know how those people were measuring \u201cfast.\u201d\u00a0<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":342137,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tstyn_error":""},"categories":[65981,21,66041],"tags":[53522,92897,74730,84516],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/epress.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/342157"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/epress.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/epress.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/epress.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/epress.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=342157"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/epress.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/342157\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/epress.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/342137"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/epress.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=342157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/epress.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=342157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/epress.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=342157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}