Epress.am News from Armenia
More than a year ago, Russia began to take steps to minimize losses from a possible military action against Tehran, and now preparations are nearly complete. The Russian military base in Armenia is fully optimized, military families have been evacuated from the country, the Russian garrison stationed near Yerevan has been cut, and military units have been moved to Gyumri, closer to the Turkish border. The US troops can hit targets in Iran from Turkey, writes Russian news source Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
In connection with the prospect of war against Iran, Russia’s Ministry of Defense is wary of Azerbaijan, which in the past three years has doubled its military budget, acquiring Israeli drones and other advanced means of intelligence. In addition, Baku has stepped up pressure on Moscow, demanding that it pay more in rent for the use of its Gabala radar station.
Expert opinions on how Azerbaijan might react to conflict south of its borders are split in two. Director of the Center for Military Forecasts Anatoly Tsyganok believes that even with the dispute between Iran and Azerbaijan over oil fields south of the Caspian Sea, it’s difficult to confidently say that Baku would support an anti-Iranian military campaign. It is very unlikely that it will choose to take advantage of the situation to unleash hostilities against Armenia.
Military expert Vladimir Popov, however, believes that Azerbaijan might take advantage of the situation to resolve the Karabakh issue in its favor.
In this case, the expert said, Russia, of course, with Armenian armed forces, will repeal Azerbaijan’s attacks, but will not take part in the hostilities in the territory of Nagorno Karabakh.
Another country worrying Russia against the backdrop of possible military conflict in Iran is Georgia. In April, Armenia’s northern neighbor cut short its agreement to allow the transfer of military cargo from Russia to its base in Armenia through Georgia, so that in fact the Russian-Armenian alliance in the South Caucasus is already isolated.
Russia gets diesel fuel from Armenia, which purchases it from Iran. Thus, war in Iran might suspend fuel through this channel.