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What to Expect After the Referendum in Crimea: Epress.am in Kiev

After the March 16 referendum in Crimea, the Epress.am team and Azerbaijani publicist, composer Elmir Mirzoyev spoke with member of the initiative KRYM SOS Tamila Tasheva and Euromaidan activist and artist Tetyana Ogarkova in Kiev. The two women are convinced that a significant portion of Ukrainians will not accept the situation, and Russia will have to answer for the invasion. 

Video in Russian only. Transcription below translated into English from Armenian.

Tetyana: We understand that on March 18 we de facto lost Crimea. What will happen in the future? We also saw news that Transnistria supposedly likewise wants to join the Russian Federation. We understand that the scenario that was made public by Putin's former advisor [Andrey] Illarionov, that Putin wants to capture all outlets to the sea and turn Ukraine into a landlocked state, and join it to Transnistria through Crimea, that a majority of the Ukraine will pass over to the Russian Federation, unfortunately, is becoming a reality.  

Tamila: History shows that usually, whenever a state tries to capture the territory of another state or, say, some territory wants to become autonomous, then often ethnic cleansing occurs much earlier than those events. This time the opposite happened. Consequently, it seems to me that Russia will now begin ethnic cleansing, and the first to be subjected to this ethnic cleansing will be Crimean Tartars and Ukrainians and then unpleasant Russians. SInce Russia will need to create a comfort zone, and for that it will be necessary to get rid of unpleasant people. 

Tetyana: What is to be done now? First, under no circumstances should we, say, terminate the gas or water supply to Crimea, or in some way show that Ukraine is renouncing Crimea. The Ukrainian military units in Crimea must stay there. The Russian side, in all likelihood, will present an ultimatum. We have a ceasefire until the 21st of the month, and on the 21st they might say, "Hand over your weapons; otherwise, we'll take them though an attack." They, in all likelihood, will do just that. In this situation, we have to fight till the end; we have to refuse to remove Ukrainian troops from Crimea; we must continue to show through journalists how Russia is impertinently trying to push Ukrainian troops out. 

Tamila: I'm convinced that people will fight for their freedom. If people are forced to defend their homes, their families, they will do that. I know, for instance, that Crimean Tartars say, "If they shoot in our direction, if they come to our homes and try to do something, we will show resistance." Crimean Tartars have always been a peace-loving people. If you look at history and see how they, say, returned to Crimea, their movements, their demonstrations have always been peaceful. But now they're simply being forced to take up arms and defend their homeland.
  
Tetyana: When all this had just begun, the Crimeans had the impression that Kiev is separate and they're separate. it seemed to them that in Kiev, roughly speaking, [government] portfolios were being distributed, and they were left alone with Russian — according to Putin, not Russian — troops. Now we have to support them, to insist as long as possible that Crimea is Ukrainian. That it's our state.

Tamila: There can be no question about independence. Crimean Tartars, for example, understand quite well that Crimea today cannot be an autonomous state. It's unrealistic. Crimean Tartars as part of Ukraine have always had national and cultural autonomous status. There was never any talk about separation. The separatist sentiment always came from the pro-Russian population. 

Tetyana: On paper, Crimea belongs to Russia, and now they can say, "You're occupiers, you've seized our land, and we will shoot." This is the scenario that they're following. They, of course, want there to be clashes. Consequently, if a Ukrainian military unit today attacks those "non-Russian" troops, Russia will view it as an attack on its territory.

Military people who know how to get out of this situation now have to intervene in the process today.

It's obvious that Ukraine is not ready for war. We are 2–3 steps behind the Russians; they planned all this beforehand and knew what they were going to do; they knew the order of their operations. 

There will be consequences. Russia has to pay dearly for its actions in Crimea.