Armenia Agreed to Acquire Cheap Security: Thomas de Waal

“Armenia made that deal because it currently finds itself in a difficult situation,” said Thomas de Waal, Caucasus expert and author of Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan Through Peace and War in an interview with Azatutyun (Freedom) Radio, commenting on the latest Russian military contract. 

“Serzh Sargsyan had great hopes connected to the normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations, he had invested huge political capital…, but this process, as is known, failed earlier this year,” said de Waal.

At the same time, in his words, the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiating process is at a stalemate, and Azerbaijan, taking the opportunity, is once again making noise. Thus, in this situation, Russia used the opportunity and proposed this deal to Armenia. And Armenia, which doesn’t have money, whose economy is in a miserable state, and doesn’t have the necessary funds to purchase ammunition, agreed to acquire cheap security, believes the Caucasus expert. 

The latest agreement on extending the term of Russia’s military base in Gyumri, according to de Waal, wasn’t such a big deal, since Russia’s long-term strategic plans in the Caucasus are in retreat.

The expert is convinced that Russia’s interests in the region are now dominated by an economic component: it’s much more important that Russia have a major share of Armenia’s economy. Overall, Russia has lost Georgia, and it’s adopting a serious and realistic policy in its relations with Azerbaijan. And even Armenia has a large number of partners, it’s joining NATO programs, it has good relations with the US and the European Union, it has many partners in the foreign policy arena, and it’s not preparing to “place all its eggs in Russia’s basket.”

At the same time, in de Waal’s words, Russia offers to the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and other such countries that which the United States and the European Union don’t — an atmosphere free of criticism, when the issue relates to democracy, human rights, freedom of the press. That is, they can be convinced that they won’t hear lectures or get reprimands from Russia. This is a transaction. More so, these states can adopt technology from Russia how, for example, to restrict or intimidate opponents.   

But, says de Waal, the key term in relations with Russia is “partnership ally,” and Russia knows that, in different sectors, political, economic or military, the times of supremacy have passed, and those countries, in any case, will establish relations with the West.