Epress.am News from Armenia
The South Caucasus is not a strategically important region for the world, said Thomas de Waal, Senior Associate in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of the book “Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan through Peace and War,” in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza (“Caucasus Bulletin”).
“If we exaggerate the importance of the region, we risk the self-inflation of local political figures. That, unfortunately, happened with Georgia in 2008. In fact, the importance of the region is mainly with a minus sign, since its instability and smoldering conflicts are capable of much harm to the greater region.
“If the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict again turns into war, it will affect not only Armenia and Azerbaijan. It would have catastrophic effects on Georgia, Russia, Turkey, Iran, as well as on the oil and gas sector of the Caspian Sea. On this basis, I believe we should strive to reach a common denominator on the South Caucasus, as a result of which the region will become a neutral zone where the interests of all the great states and neighboring countries will be taken into account, provided that these interests will not be hostile. The smaller the interests, the better,” he said.
“The situation surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh today is very concerning: war is more likely than peace. Such thoughts are suggested by the following factors: the freezing of the Armenia-Turkey process and the fatigue from the Prague Process. As a result, this year’s peace process was on the verge of collapse, and the number of shootings on the line of contact grew significantly. Until now, there is an impression in the world that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be controlled, that it is not dangerous and does not require additional efforts by the international community, since the parties simply do not want to sign an agreement that would be unpopular at home.
“Today that attitude seems too optimistic. There is a risk that the confrontation could again erupt in war, and that means that Russia, the US and the EU should exert more pressure on both sides, they need to begin to discuss those assurances of security which might promise to maintain the conditions of a peace treaty when the two presidents sign it.
“The Karabakh conflict is the most striking example that I know; it’s hard to find an Armenian or an Azerbaijani who doesn’t believe that Karabakh is his. The resolution to the conflict and the search for a unified approach will begin when both sides overcome the psychological barrier and no longer assume that the other’s position is unjust or illegal. Unfortunately, that moment is still very far away,” he said.