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Azerbaijani Analysts Concerned over Russia’s Mediation in Karabakh Conflict

The mere fact of the meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Astrakhan is itself a positive step, since the negotiating process, which had been virtually abandoned until recently, has resumed, said political analyst and Musavat Party deputy chair Gabil Huseinli, commenting on Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s Oct. 27 meeting in the Russian city of Astrakhan, reports Azerbaijani publication Sharg. 

Huseinli (alternative spelling: Huseynli) considers it important that the Astrakhan meeting took place before the OSCE Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan from Dec. 1–2. According to him, in 1999, before a similar summit, in Istanbul, details of a peace agreement were worked out, but signing the document was put on hold because of the notorious shooting in Armenia’s parliament on Oct. 27.

“Let’s see if there willl be progress in resolving the Karabakh conflict now,” he said. 

The analyst considered the fact that the role of mediator is solely taken on by Russia, while the other co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group (France and the US) remain on the sidelines to be “concerning.” In his opinion, when other members of the international community step aside, Russia, in tackling international issues, tries to realize its own strategic interests, which is detrimental to the negotiating process. 

Serious results from the Astrakhan meeting shouldn’t be expected, opines another analyst, Baku-based Huseynbala Salimov. According to him, while Serzh Sargsyan was holding talks on the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process with Aliyev and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Armenia’s parliament was debating the issue of recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence. 

On one hand, Russia takes on the role of mediator, while on the other hand, Russia’s partner, Armenia’s parliament discusses such issues that undermine the mediation. 

“This means that either Armenia is not ready for real negotiations or Russia’s mediation is [simply] symbolic or [just] a formality,” said Salimov. 

In his view, if Russia really wants a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, then it shouldn’t organize meetings between the presidents, but rather use other means to move Armenia toward peace — more so because Russia has such leverage.