Epress.am News from Armenia
“The position of [Armenia’s] president, Serzh Sargsyan, appears more secure now that the economic situation has improved, following a contraction of 14.4% in real GDP in 2009,” reads the monthly highlight on a report on Armenia published by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).
According to the website, The Economist Intelligence Unit is the world’s leading resource for economic and business research, forecasting and analysis. Like the magazine The Economist, The Economist Intelligence Unit is independent of all governing bodies and corporations, leaving it free to deliver “accurate and impartial business intelligence.”
“The position of the president, Serzh Sargsyan, remains stable. The threats to his hold on power from government factions close to his predecessor, Robert Kocharian, and from the main opposition groups have further decreased. The largest opposition force, the Armenian National Congress (ANC), has continued to call for snap presidential and parliamentary elections, while avoiding concrete actions that could raise the pressure on the government. Even within the ANC, there is a growing realisation that the party’s ability to force the government to call elections early has substantially weakened, so that the potential for this scenario to be realised is currently very slim.”
Such actions can hardly convince the public that the ANC (HAK, in Armenian) can form a united opposition force, says the report. But efforts by Levon Ter-Petrossian to create a wider platform, with the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) and the Heritage Party, yielded no results. According to the country report, RA President Serzh Sargsyan, however, managed to strengthen his power among elite political and business circles.
The Economist Intelligence Unit report believes that even the 2009 economic recessions didn’t significantly weaken Sargsyan’s position.
As for the 2012 parliamentary and 2013 presidential elections, the EIU report considers it likely that Sargsyan’s ruling Republican Party of Armenia, which holds 64 out of the 131 seats in parliament, “will continue its supremacy in parliament.”
According to the report, during elections, the Republican Party of Armenia will use its administrative resources, while the opposition again will come across difficulties because of its inability to act as a united bloc.
Further, though certain steps have been taken to improve the electoral process in Armenia, the opposition expects that election results will be disputed. Also not excluded is the possibility of post-election demonstrations: The government will show more restraint in the issue of breaking up demonstrations through the use of violence, since such actions of theirs in 2008 were widely condemned by the international community, reads the report.
As for foreign relations, the report predicts that “attempts to improve relations with Turkey will be difficult, as little progress has been made in the unresolved dispute with Azerbaijan, an important Turkish ally, over Nagorny Karabakh.” Further, Sargsyan is expected to face opposition in his efforts at reconciliation with Turkey and Azerbaijan, according to the EIU experts.
Prospects at resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, according to the report, are vague, despite continued mediation by the OSCE Minsk Group.