Epress.am News from Armenia
The main reason for the increase in pressure on Nagorno-Karabakh is the growth of the military and strategic imbalance between Armenia and Azerbaijan, said opposition Armenian National Congress (HAK) coordinator Levon Zurabyan in an interview with Russian daily Vremya (“Time”) News.
According to him, while negotiations are still underway and there are promises by the international community that the conflict will be resolved, Baku will not initiate war.
“But it will receive casus belli [justification for acts of war], if it proves that negotiations are stalled. If strong pressure from the international community is absent, it will be difficult to avoid war. On the other hand, Russia’s inclination is that it’s no longer possible to maintain the status quo. Two years after the war in Georgia, the interest of all players in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict grew,” said Zurabyan.
The opposition member also noted that Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan hopes that the disagreements between the US and Russia will block a breakthrough in this matter.
“But it will be a temporary respite. It’s difficult for Sargsyan to find a way out. His policies don’t answer the question of how to keep a strategic balance with Azerbaijan,” he said.
Asked whether there will be progress in resolving the conflict at the OSCE Summit in Astana, Zurabyan said that there might be pressure exerted on Sargsyan. (Note that no peace deal was reached at the summit; on the contrary, previously stated commitments were reiterated.)
“He’s backed into a corner. His legitimacy rests on the support of the international community; however, this is not the case inside the country. Because of this, he is more susceptible to international pressure; the loss of international support can be destructive for him,” said Zurabyan, referring to the Armenian leader.
Speaking on the first president of the Republic of Armenia (and HAK leader) Levon Ter-Petrossian, Zurabyan noted that Ter-Petrossian lost his post “trying to find ways to solve the Karabakh problem.”
In 1997, the settlement plan proposed by the international community was adopted by Armenia and Azerbaijan, but not Nagorno-Karabakh, which rejected it, said Zurabyan.
“That is the flexibility which doesn’t exist today. Ter-Petrossian was offering solutions that Armenia could adopt as a position of strength and the situation also allowed us to keep Nagorno-Karabakh and the connection with Lachin and Kelbajar. Ter-Petrossian warned then, if we don’t make a decision now, we will lose our victory. And he was right,” said Zurabyan.
The current plan for settling the conflict, according to Zurabyan, is much worse than the proposal offered in 1997.
“That time, there was a point that said Nagorno-Karabakh’s status would be determined by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh (NKR). NKR had the right to determine its own destiny. According to the 1997 plan, the Lachin corridor remained under the control of Nagorno-Karabakh defense forces, and negotiations were underway to likewise include Kelbajar region.
“Today, on the basis of the Madrid Principles, all seven districts must be handed over, only a narrow corridor under international control will remain, and Azerbaijan refugees will return to the area. Demilitarization, which was being proposed in 1997, is no longer [on the table]. Armenia has no security guarantees. And Armenians get only one expression: in the future, the people of Karabakh have the right to determine their fate. This is a vague statement which [Azerbaijani President] Ilham Aliyev will interpret in his way, saying that NKR will receive its self-determination only within Azerbaijan, and Serzh Sargysan his own way, that the world has recognized the right of NKR to self-determination,” said Zurabyan.