Epress.am News from Armenia
According to Stratfor, a company that provides explanations of world events using intelligence and analysis based on geopolitics, the unrest in Egypt is unlikely to be repeated in Armenia or other post-Soviet countries.
A recent report published by the Washington-based center notes that “Armenia is not typically prone to large-scale unrest and protests, though recently the country’s opposition, led by former Armenian president and current head of the Armenian National Congress party Levon Ter-Petrossian, has called for a large rally Feb. 18 in Yerevan’s Freedom [Liberty] Square, citing Egypt as an inspiration.
“But it is unclear if they will be able to demonstrate at Freedom Square at all, because soon after Ter-Petrossian’s party revealed its protest plans, Yerevan city officials said Freedom Square would be off-limits because it would be the scene of ‘sporting and cultural events’ from Feb. 15 to March 15.
“While the protest will be a key event worth monitoring closely, the opposition remains a limited force in terms of challenging the ruling authorities, so Armenia is the least at risk of the potential problem states,” reads the report, in part.
The report names four states in the Caucasus and Central Asia that face more pressure and “have more underlying problems for regime stability and security” than other states. These are Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Azerbaijan; however, as noted above, the American experts concluded that “Armenia is not typically prone to large-scale unrest and protests” and so is not as high a risk as the other three states.
“Protests and opposition forces [in these countries] are more likely to create real problems for the ruling regimes. This is not to say these states will see the same scenario as Egypt,” the report concludes.