Epress.am News from Armenia
The chain of anti-government protests in Arab countries could theoretically spread also to the Transcaucasus states, said head of the Caucasus section at the Kazan Center for Regional and Ethnic-Religious Studies Yana Amelina, speaking to Russian news agency Res.
All the Transcaucasus states, she said, have great potential for internal conflict.
“First, they are characterized by a widespread dissatisfaction among the population of government action or the government in general; and second, society is permeated by corruption; there’s a huge gap in income and opportunities for self-realization between the rich and the poor,” she said.
According to Amelina, today there is every reason to believe that the first two factors necessary for a revolution are present in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, but, unlike the Arab countries of the East, the third indication — external factors — is absent.
“According to Lenin’s famous definition, a revolution is when the ruling class can no longer keep their supremacy intact and the lower classes no longer want to live like they did before. As well as a significant increase in the activity of the masses and their readiness for an independent revolution,” she explained.
She advised not to forget about another important factor: that of external factors.
“Guessing is not necessary for who will tear down the rotten wall of authoritarian-oligarchic regimes and when (perhaps Armenia is a little less authoritarian, but there is a sufficient oligarchic system); such processes quite often develop spontaneously and, most importantly, quickly,” she concluded.