Will Gas Change the Rules of the Game in Armenia-Turkey-Azerbaijan Triangle?

Of all the topics that are currently being batted around as possible post-election foreign policy priorities of Ankara, the issue of Turkey-Armenia rapprochement is surfacing again and again.

I have even been contacted by energy companies involved in Caspian projects asking whether I have any inside information from Ankara as to whether or not a fresh attempt to get the rapprochement back on track will take place and if so how may it affect energy deals that are on the table — most notably between Turkey and Azerbaijan but also as far away as Turkmenistan. For these guys, getting their gas to European markets is far more important than the Turkish-Armenia border being reopened, therefore, they really do not wish to see Baku “upset” again, which could result in further delays for projects and create fresh tensions in the region.

Any new rapprochement attempt will need to be meticulously thought through — civil society and academia have been busy coming up with possible steps forward to this end — and all sides will need to be more flexible than they previously were. If progress is really going to be made, this means making it far more “inclusive,” including keeping Azerbaijan in the loop which will mean that something needs to happen on Nagorno-Karabakh. If this does not happen, I am very skeptical this process will be able to succeed.

It is very likely that the “gas hurdle” will reappear because while Turkey and Azerbaijan may have signed a Memorandum of Understanding on gas tariffs and transit, they have not ratified it. Without the ratification the agreement is not worth much. And, of course, it is very possible that Azerbaijan will again bring this issue to the table to continue to hobble rapprochement which, of course, would also have a knock on effect on the EU energy security projects. Furthermore, Azerbaijan may also go one step further as it has another card to play — namely its own role as a transit state. For projects such as Nabucco to materialize gas from Central Asia (as well as Azerbaijan) is essential. Azerbaijan would be the transit state for Turkmen gas, thereby Azerbaijan may decide to say — we want progress on Nagorno-Karabakh — otherwise we won’t be ready to act as a transit state.  Gas it seems is very much the game changer in this triangle.

This article by Amanda Paul republished in part from Today’s Zaman.