Falling Oil Prices will Hit Azerbaijan, Where Power in One Family’s Hands Annoys Many

There is more likely to be a repeat of events in Arab countries in Azerbaijan and Russia, more than other countries in the Caucasus region, said Director of the Institute of Globalisation Studies and Social Movements (in Moscow), sociologist and publicist Boris Kagarlitsky (pictured) in an interview with NewCaucasus.com.

Azerbaijan, in his words, is closer to the model we see in the Middle East. “There, the power is in the hands of one family; this fact irritates many, including a part of the elite which doesn’t receive, as it seems to them, their legitimate share of the power. And, accordingly, the divisions among the elite are amplified. Most likely for this reason, there’s a greater chance of the ‘Arab scenario’ repeating, particularly if there’s a sharp drop in oil prices. If this happens, then of course Azerbaijan will be hit fast and hard.

“Falling oil prices in the long term, in my opinion, are inevitable since there’s absolutely no growth in demand.

“In this issue Russia and Azerbaijan have almost the same problems: they can quickly find themselves before serious issues in the second half of this year or early next year. And for Russia, it’ll be especially ridiculous since if the forecast becomes true (even at least a third), then all the problems will arise on the threshold of parliamentary and presidential elections.

“On Armenia, I have no expert opinion; I only know that which the papers report. But I think that if a large-scale series of events begin, no one will hold back. Both Georgia and Armenia cannot refrain from [such] events,” he said.