Difficult for Armenia to Hold Back Russian Gyumri Base if Attack on Georgia: Analyst

The Russian military base in the Armenian city of Gyumri did not get involved in the Russo-Georgia war of August 2008, since it wasn’t formally subject to the command of the 58th army which was advancing on Georgia, said Tbilisi-based analyst Mamuka Areshidze in an interview with Epress.am.

Now, he said, the situation has changed: “The military base in Armenia and all the military units on Georgian territory [Abkhazia, South Ossetia], all the military units, including the 49th and 58th armies of the North Caucasus, are under one command — from the southern direction. Based on this fact, if Russia begins military operations on Georgian territory in the future, all these forces will take part in the conflict if, of course, Armenia doesn’t resist, but it will be very difficult for Armenia to prevent the participation of the Gyumri base in military operations.”

At the same time, Areshidze expressed confidence that the Armenian leadership will resist to the end the participation of Gyumri’s Russian base in military actions in Georgia.

“But will Moscow take into account Yerevan’s opinion? The Gyumri base won’t get involved in these operations if Russia decides that it can claim victory over Georgia without the participation of this base,” he concluded.