Beginning of the End or End of the Beginning? New WikiLeaks Cable on Armenia-Turkey Relations

A US cable dated Sept. 9, 2009, and released May 15, 2011, on the whistle-blowing site WikiLeaks covers Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Ambassador Tina Kaidanow’s Sept. 3–4 visit to Turkey, where she met with senior Turkish officials who said they’re committed to the reconciliation process with Armenia, but they also need to see progress on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.

During Kaidanow’s visit, Turkey’s Minister of Foreign Affairs’ Undersecretary Feridun Sinirlioglu told the US diplomat that “the protocols to establish and develop diplomatic

relations between Turkey and Armenia has created very positive momentum on which all parties should build.  While acknowledging that Nagarno-Karabagh is on a separate track, Sinirlioglu stressed that Turkey also needs to see progress on Nagorno-Karabakh.  This message was echoed by TGS Deputy CHOD Gen Guner during his meeting with DAS Kaidanow.

Sinirlioglu also predicted that this sensitive step will be fiercely debated in parliament,” according to the WikiLeaks cable.

The section on Armenia-Turkey relations continues as follows:

“MFA Deputy U/S Cevikoz, the MFA point person on normalization with Armenia, told Kaidanow in a separate meeting that Turkey was pleased with how the press was being managed and thanked the US for helping to manage the Azeris. ‘Turkey hopes this is the beginning of an end, rather than the end of the beginning,’ Cevikoz quipped, but said a lot will depend on how the next steps play out, including the Minsk Group meeting in Chisinau (on the margins of the CIS summit) between Armenian President [Serzh] Sargsyan and Azerbaijani President [Ilham] Aliyev, and Sargsyan’s attendance at the World Cup qualifier match in Turkey between Turkey and Armenia on October 14.

“Kaidanow applauded Turkey’s courage in moving forward with normalization with Armenia.  The US understands that although the two issues are on separate tracks, it is important for Turkey to see progress on NKR in order to move forward with normalization.  She underscored that the US remains committed to finding a resolution on NKR and noted the appointment of Ambassador Bradtke as the new US co-chair for the Minsk Group as a reflection of the US commitment.  Sinirlioglu welcomed this announcement and said Turkey will look forward to working closely with Bradtke.

“Senior representatives from the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the National Action Party (MHP) told Kaidanow that opposition parties will reject the protocols without a commitment from Armenia to withdraw from occupied Azerbaijani territories.  During the dinner hosted by Ambassador Jeffrey on Sept. 4, CHP Vice Chair and former MFA Undersecretary Onur Oymen argued that Turkey normalizing relations with Armenia before an Armenian withdrawal would effectively condone the illegal occupation by Armenia. This, Onur concluded, would set a terrible precedent for other instances of illegal occupation in the South Caucasus, including the Russian occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Hakan Fidan, senior advisor to PM Erdogan, retorted by noting that the protocol should be seen as a confidence-building measure in advance of ratification by both parliaments and that the government understands the need for progress on Nagarno-Karabagh in order to receive opposition support for the protocols. Kaidanow also noted that if Azerbaijan was willing to accept finalizing an agreement on the Madrid Basic Principles as a mark of success in the Nagorno-Karabakh process, Turkey should not be in the position of defining that success more stringently than Baku.”