If Opposition Doesn’t Change, Islam will Rear its Head: Baku Analyst in Yerevan

Despite the parliamentary elections, 2010 was a boring year in Azerbaijan in terms of events, said Baku-based political analyst Rauf Mirgadirov during an international conference titled “Caucasus-2010” held in Yerevan on Tuesday.

According to him, the last elections were the most boring in the region because, “in contrast to Georgia and Armenia, the opposition in Azerbaijan is destroyed.”

“There are parties, opposition figures — they are mentioned in a couple of newspapers. They are not allowed on TV. Unlike in previous elections, the opposition didn’t even attempt to destabilize the situation. It filed an application to hold demonstrations, the authorities didn’t allow it and the opposition agreed.

“Azerbaijan’s authorities are very powerful and have monopolized all spheres of life. In this situation it’s impossible to predict anything. When and how this system will fail, no one knows.

“But since the beginning of this year, in the wake of unrest in several Arab-Muslim countries, the Islamic factor has intensified in Azerbaijan.

“The opposition recently attempted to hold an unsanctioned rally in central Baku, but the crowds were severely dispersed. Till today, 25 people are under arrest. Among them are people from the leadership of opposition parties, many young activists, bloggers, graduates of prestigious universities from around the world. They are accused of drug trafficking, desertion, and are given the maximum terms defined under the law. We joke that the arrest of Harvard graduates are part of the state program to increase literacy and teach foreign languages in prisons.

“If the opposition can be deprived of the tools of the information field, and they go sit in their offices to give interviews, which they do, then it’s a bit more complicated when it comes to religion. Mosques are spread all over Azerbaijan. The authorities can’t destroy this system. In each village there is a mosque or mosques, there is Friday prayers, which brings together most of the inhabitants; there is organization. Thus, over the last 15–16 years, the opposition electorate has been increasingly drawing attention to Islam as a means of struggle against the government.

“There is no other alternative. It is this opposition that was able to hold two unsanctioned rallies. Their leader is now in prison; he is accused of organizing mass anti-government rallies.

“Three to five thousand people under the present conditions in Azerbaijan is a serious number. There, unlike in Armenia and Georgia, the authorities don’t allow mass gatherings.

“But I wouldn’t say that political Islam presents a real strength in the country today. This is a process of becoming. If in the coming years, the secular opposition, the right, the left, don’t return to politics, political Islam will become the only opposition force. Then many things will change and it will get complicated. For example, in the Karabakh issue, even moderate Islam, which supports European integration, adopts a very radical position: if there are no Azeris in Armenia, then there will be no Armenians in Azerbaijan, or Azeris will return to Armenia and create something analogous to Karabakh. This is unrealistic. No one seriously takes a similar approach, but it is rhetoric which can become dominant,” said Mirgadirov.