If Sargsyan Moves To Compromise, It’ll be Difficult for Him to Win 2012 Election: ICG Analyst

The Karabakh conflict deeply concerns the International Crisis Group (ICG), said ICG Vice-President (Europe) Alain Délétroz on the radio station Ekho Moskvy (“Echo of Moscow”).

The fact that the situation concerning the conflict could explode, he said, is testified by the periodic skirmished on the troops’ frontline and casualties on both sides.

“And politically, there’s no progress. There’s also no progress in the framework of the Minsk Group. One side says it’s ready to accept one part of the Minsk Group’s plan, a part of the so-called Madrid Principles, while the other side says it’s exactly this principle they don’t want to accept. And vice-versa. The political climate in Armenia is currently not in a very favorable situation in the sense that the Armenian president most likely doesn’t have a huge scope for advancement in this area. If he takes a step toward compromise with Azerbaijan, I fear that it will be very difficult for him to win the next election.

“And in Azerbaijan, there’s a different situation because there’s no strong opposition. Public opinion has become so relentless that even if both presidents reach an agreement around the negotiating table, when they return home afterwards, as we have seen in the past, public opinion doesn’t even accept these insignificant compromises. So there’s a deadlock there, so first there has to be a lot of work on public opinion and prepare the public for compromises,” he said.