Decrease in Birth Rates, Rise in Deaths: What’s in Store for Armenia

The time when Armenia will have more deaths than births is not far, said demographer Ruben Yeganyan at a press conference in the Armenian capital today.

Yeganyan noted that the total birth rate coefficient in Armenia is 1.7 whereas the standard is 2.1, which shows how many children a woman has throughout her reproductive age.

“At the international level, there’s a drop in birth rates. The factors for this drop are mainly the rise in standards of living and increase in education levels,” he said, noting, however, that the situation in Armenia is markedly different.

According to the expert, the drop in birth rates in Armenia is due to the deterioration of socioeconomic standards in the country.

“In the 70s and 80s, the birth rate was almost stable. However, in the 90s, the situation radically changed, the reasons of which, unlike internationally, were the socioeconomic conditions and the huge wave of emigration. If there’s no state intervention, if this country doesn’t improve in economic, social and moral terms, the current state policy in the demographic sector will be considered simply a nervous contraction,” he said.

The demographer expressed his concern for what is in store for Armenia if such trends continue.

“This process will continue rapidly, the age structure of the population will change, which, by the way, has already changed: if we judge by international standards, we are considered to have an aged population — we have reached a level of nearly 12% of our pension-age population, which is a very high level. Then, in both political and economic terms we will weaken, we will dwindle. If there is no intervention, the processes will carry on irreversibly,” said a concerned Yeganyan.