The Railway of Confidence Between Armenia, Azerbaijan: Opinion

Despite the hostility between Yerevan and Baku, it’s possible to begin finding ways of getting closer — but not by focusing on the option of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in stages, which actually has enclosed the conflict and doesn’t allow the parties to break out of this circle, writes analyst Yuri Simonyan in the Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

Simonyan suggests that an absolute break in the deadlock in the current situation can come from re-opening the railway from Azerbaijan — and under the current circumstances.

“Baku will only benefit from this. First, it’s a gesture of being a strong player confident in itself and its abilities. Second, it actually will force Yerevan to make an equivalent, reciprocal move, and if the Armenian side is not ready for it, international mediators will try to explain and prepare it for such actions. Third, if Armenia is still unable to respond adequately, closing the roads again is not a problem. A shift in sympathies due to the constructive position of one of the parties to the conflict and the inability of the other to be prepared for this can be expected in the international arena,” writes Simonyan, finding that in implementing this scenario, playing an important role could be Russia, which is involved as a major mediator in the Armenian-Azeri talks.

“Plus, Russia could have purely an economic interest: taken under concession management, Armenian Railways is not fully used under the blockade. If unblocked, probably the fate of Armenian enterprises transferred to Russia from Armenia’s state debt but not exploited could be different. Do not forget also about the North-South transport corridor project, which might play a more significant than at present,” believes Simonyan.