Epress.am News from Armenia
Armenian President and ruling Republican Party leader Serzh Sargsyan stated that the process had begun to expel wealthy businessman and the leader of Parliament’s second largest party, Prosperous Armenia, Gagik Tsarukyan from political life. Tsarukyan responded with a statement about the start toward regime change, right after losing his membership in the National Security Council. Epress.am interviewed social and political activists Zara Harutyunyan and Anton Ivchenko about the current situation.
The main theses of the conversation below:
– Of course, we're speaking about a “competition” between two “political actors”; their political parties, basically, start and end with them. Both Tsarukyan and Sargsyan’s parties, generally, have the same perspective in regards to basic political issues: private property, “authority,” the state, resource distribution, morality, honor, religious values, the nation, even foreign policy. In these circumstances, the two parties' criticisms can only be in two styles:
1. The opponent is dysfunctional (stupid, incapable, etc.)
2. We will do it better than the opponent. The opponent does it worse than we would do or it does not do what it has promised, while we promise and will do it.
– Can the current situation change the way the public perceives politics?
Mostly not. The only thing that has changed is that the political confrontation between the two dubious actors (not political platforms/ideologies/economic doctrines and even the parties) has reached a unique peak. Basically, the difference is quantitative, and not qualitative. The kingdom’s largest vassal (sovereign's former most loyal servant) stated that the sovereign is taking the entire kingdom to hell, while the sovereign responded saying that the vassal (former loyal servant) has become presumptuous and has forgotten about his duty to fill up the wine glasses around the table and to drive the tiresome petitioners away.
Moreover, both the sovereign and the vassal are saying the same thing: such people are dangerous for the state. In this light, Serzh’s words about the necessity of abandoning feudal logic are a bit comical.
– Does the current situation promote political and social self-organization among the citizens?
It needs to be specified, as to whose self-organizing we are talking about. The Republicans' self-organization is a priori impossible; there is a massive bureaucratic apparatus which organizes, but does not allow nor promotes self-organization. In regards to Prosperous Armenia, then yes, it promotes self-organization in regards to their fervent supporters of party, who feel that the decisive time to fight has come. If the conflict escalates, it would also promote the self-organization of the politically neutral, but “unsatisfied” sector. Possiblly among the supporters of other political forces, at least those who do not feel any aversion toward Dodi Gago.
On the other hand, the latter group would probably be perceived by Prosperous Armenia’s loyal supporters as ally enemies. Basically, they will be denied subjectivity. We shouldn't hurry to be happy about such self-organization. Self-organization is a good thing, but self-organization built as a pyramid where Dodi Gago sits on the peak and for his part, brings happiness/peace/prosperity, is, obviously, not the most progressive phenomenon.
Presently, the opposition coalition is dividing up the pelt of a bear not yet killed. In case the situation develops and there is relative opposition successes, we would probably be witnesses to one of the most shameful manifestations of parliamentarism. In the end, let’s not forget, that at least Levon Ter-Petrosyan still holds the burden of presidential ambitions. However little Heritage and Armenian National Congress ambitions are fulfilled, they will put that much less effort in the political process. If they obtain more influence in the process, then Prosperous Armenia will be much more cautious in its policies.
The opposition must find a balance in influence or at least, clearly see, until when or where their political interests coincide, basically, until the moment when Serzh Sargsyan “would be ready to listen to the opposition’s demands.” Starting from that point, there will most likely be not two, but a standoff of three camps.
Regardless of all this, we are approaching all types of prediction with skepticism, and think that the situation can develop in another way. For example, they may open a few criminal cases against Dodi Gago, quite possibly objective ones, sentence him to imprisonment, and turn him into a second Khodorkovsky; his image will be romanticized, while Prosperous Armenia will turn into a political party and not an office.