Epress.am News from Armenia
In 2010, the South Caucasus countries were freed from the fear of 2008 when Russia returned to the old methods: “I don’t want to hear; you’ll get it on your heads.” This view was expressed by Baku-based Zerkalu news outlet political analyst Rauf Mirgadirov (pictured below) at “Caucasus-2010,” an international conference held in Congress Hotel in Yerevan on Tuesday.
According to him, Azerbaijan’s initial reaction to the Russo-Georgian war was fear. “When the presidents of 5 EU countries decided to go and support Tbilisi, they landed in Ganja [Azerbaijan] and drove overland to Georgia. Azerbaijan’s president didn’t even meet them for the sake of advertising, to show the role played by his country.
“The reaction of Armenia’s president too was exemplary. He sat next to Medvedev when the latter said Russia was powerful before, but now it’s even more powerful. Serzh Sargsyan confirmed this thought with great regret,” said Mirgadirov.
2008, according to the analyst, showed that the status quo in Karabakh could easily be disrupted and stopping the war will be very difficult. “There are troops within 30 km of the pipelines who are ready to shoot at them [i.e. the pipelines]… the war will change little in Karabakh’s status: there won’t be winners, the occupied territories won’t increase; it’s possible, they will decrease. Recognition as in Kosovo, as well, won’t be.”
The conflict will not be solved, even if the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh are returned to Azerbaijan, said Mirgadirov.
“There is pressure on Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign something. Now the situation is such that Baku and Yerevan can choose the time to break the status quo. No one distributes the troops on the border. The deployment of peacekeepers will sustain the conflict, but the parties cannot break the status quo without permission.
“Leverage will go from the hands of Armenia and Azerbaijan to Russia and the United States. Because of this, pressure will intensify on both Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan. Some political processes in Armenia also should be viewed from this point of view. Neither Prosperous Armenia nor the Dashnaks [the Armenian Revolutionary Federation] can be allies of Serzh Sargsyan. An ally can be Levon Ter-Petrossian,” he said, rather unexpectedly.