Epress.am News from Armenia
In a Aug. 8, 2009 meeting with US Deputy Assistant Secretary (DAS) Matthew Bryza, former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrossian (LTP) said that when it comes to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, “ten years had been wasted, during which Armenia has become relatively weaker” while Azerbaijan has grown relatively stronger. According to an Aug. 17, 2009 confidential cable written by former US Ambassador to Armenia Marie L. Yovanovitch recently released by WikiLeaks, Ter-Petrossian believed Azerbaijan would get more now from a negotiated settlement than it could have five years ago.
“As for his Armenian National Congress (ANC), LTP said they would not create obstacles to a settlement. If there were no solution now according to the Basic Princples, the next solution on offer would be still worse, or there would be war. However, he said that if Sargsyan turns out to have negotiated a bad solution, ANC would do all in its power to prevent it. Moreover, if the authorities did not release the remaining 23 of ‘our friends still in jail,’ the ANC would have to fight against Sargsyan using every legal means and on all topics. LTP said it was a ‘huge mistake’ that the President didn’t release all political prisoners through the amnesty. Sargsyan still had legal means to extend the amnesty to those remaining in prison, he said, and urged Bryza to act as an intermediary in securing their release. ‘If the political prisoners issue is not solved, we will have to mobilize
against the government,’ he said, and quickly added ‘by constitutional means only’,” reads the cable.
On the matter of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement being considered by the Minsk Group, Bryza said it would become known to Ter-Petrossian, “once details became known.” Yovanovitch notes that “In fact, the step-by-step approach LTP had championed as president was the foundation of the current proposed settlement.”
In terms of possible impediments to settlement, Bryza named a “lack of courage or strength, particularly on the part of Sargsyan.” When Ter-Petrossian asked whether Russia would be an impediment, Bryza noted that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has been “helpful,” while Russian PM Vladimir Putin’s comments the day before, that Russia was playing a major role on NKR settlement, “suggested that he wants to be seen as leading, and is thus invested.”
“LTP said that if Russia did not want it, it would not happen. Bryza said that now it seems that Russia wants a solution, perhaps because it wants to improve its reputation following what was, for them, the shocking fallout from the Georgia war. Perhaps more importantly, Russia may be trying to improve its position in the Caucasus. Since it views its position in Armenia as unassailable, it can only improve its strategic position in the region by improving relations with Azerbaijan. Russia
believes helping with a settlement could help pull Azerbaijan toward it. The USG [United States Government] is more than happy to let Russia move the process forward as far as possible. LTP worried that Russia does not actually want a solution, but rather a lingering problem that leaves both Armenia and Azerbaijan dependent on Russia,” reads the cable.
The parties also discussed the Millennium Challenge Corporation’s (MCC) extension of the operational hold on funding for road construction. Ter-Petrossian said “he wanted to see pressure on the authorities, especially related to democratic backsliding, but not in a way that made regular people suffer,” adding, however, that the MCC suspension was a minor issue and not a huge loss since Armenia had received “huge new loans” and the MCC loss was “one drop.”