Moscow Did Not Take Advantage of Tension between Baku and Ankara

A couple of years ago it seemed that as a result of difficulties in negotiations with Turkey, Azerbaijan was going to seriously implement a diversification strategy to reduce its dependence on Ankara in the matter of gas exports, writes expert with the Center for Caucasus and Central Asian Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences Stanislav Pritchin in Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

In Pritchin’s opinion, at the time Baku had strong reasons to seek alternative routes bypassing Turkey. One of the stumbling blocks in relations between the two ally states became Ankara’s plans to open the Armenia-Turkey border.

“In Baku, Turkey’s plans were seen as nothing but a betrayal, given that the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh is still not resolved. Under these circumstances, Azerbaijan’s leadership began to actively look for alternative routes to export raw materials,” writes the Russian analyst.

It was planned that the gas would leave the country via at least three alternative routes: through Iran, Russia, as well as the terminal on Georgia’s Black Sea coast to Romania or Bulgaria. Now the situation, in the analyst’s opinion, has changed, and all plans for alternative routes most likely will be called off. Thus, for example, amid growing tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, to increase gas exports to this country is full of  political losses, which is why the this option won’t be developing in the near future.

As for the Russian lines, in Pritchin’s opinion, relations between Moscow and Baku are not limited to cooperation in the oil and gas sector.

“Russia, as a OSCE Minsk Group member and an ally of [both] Armenia and Azerbaijan, has taken steps toward resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, but so far without much success. There is cooperation in the military sector, as Russia rents the radar station located in Gabala. Negotiations are presently underway to extend the lease, which expires at the end of 2012. Economic cooperation is actively developing, and following the crisis last year, trade reached $2 billion USD.

“But it is cooperation in the energy sector in the past few years that has conveyed special dynamics to relations…

“It seemed that the in the matter of gas exports, the Russian direction might have become, if not tantamount to Europe then at least for Baku, one of the most important. Now the situation is changing,” said Pritchin.

According to him, Russia is clearly losing the race for Azerbaijani gas, despite the fact that it is willing to pay the highest price among customers in Baku.