Invite China, Iran, Turkey, Germany to Mediate Karabakh Conflict?

The OSCE Minsk Group for the mediation of the Nagarno-Karabakh conflict, which includes the US, Russia and France, is the mechanism that reflects realpolitik, said Russian analyst Vitaly Zhuravlov in an interview with Baku-based news source 1news.az.

The political analyst finds it hard to imagine a change in the format of negotiations: “How can the current format be changed? Invite China, Iran, Turkey, Germany as a mediator? What is the position of the US and France? Ignore them? Then these countries will exert political pressure on Baku with all its consequences. Moreover, if France can still somehow be pushed aside (which is also undesirable), then the US reaction will have fatal consequences for Azerbaijan, especially considering that the country is not a member of such integration structures as the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organisation] and the EurAsEC [Eurasian Economic Community]. Besides, even if we hypothetically assume the emergence of new intermediaries, it’s not a fact that their actions will be more effective.”

Zhuravlov also noted that in the Karabakh issue, an “infrastructure solution” of the conflict has developed, which includes politicians, diplomats, experts, the media and NGOs and which lives its own life — sometimes irrespective of the actual processes. “So many different hypotheses, groundless initiatives and unjustified expectations stem from this and along with it, the underestimation of really significant facts,” he said.

In the analyst’s opinion, a pivotal shift in resolving the issue is not to be expected, and meetings of leaders of the parties are more aimed at PR than settling the conflict.